Obama Must Weigh the ‘X Factor’ of Race
Folks, although you may not like it, and you might get pissed, but I’m gonna keep saying it until I end this blog or assume room temperature (dittohead reference).
Black men in general are the most feared reviled peeps on the planet.
From the images of the riots in the 60’s, the black power salutes, the rap and hip hop culture, black dudes peeping and seeking white women, high incarceration rates, negative media stereotypes you name it, white folks, in particular white men, I don’t give a shit if they are liberal or progressive whatever. White people are not going to give the keys to the White House to a black man, period.
I will also say again the I don’t think it specifically “racism” that will keep Negros out of the Oval office, but the reluctance of white folks to hand over the reigns as the symbolic leader of this nation and have a black face be that symbolic leader is something that just won’t happen.
Do the math people, there are only 33 million or so Negros in this country, less than 10 percent of them give a shit about politics, you can’t win the presidency without winning the white male vote and that is equally split between Democrats and Republicans or better said left leaning and right leaning types.
There are roughly 150 million folks paying attention to this political stuff, the vast majority being white folks.
Question for you, what percentage of these 150 million people do you think have a significant and positive black presence in their lives. What I mean is a long time black friend that they love and respect. A black business partner, a respected colleague, a significant role model, a teacher, professor, mentor. A known respected neighbor, co-worker, spiritual partner or religious buddy, husband or wife.
Wanna know my answer, not counting my 2 brothers, eight (8).
I’m not counting acquaintances, or the black folks I know in passing or see once in awhile and I don’t even see or speak to these (8) on a regular basis.
You simply are not going go into a voting booth and turn over the future of this country (if you indeed give a shit about this sort of thing) to someone of a different race when you truly do not know him nor can relate to him on a basic human level.
Some Democrats are crying foul or fraud because of the poling and the eventual results with Hillary becoming victorious.
But basic common sense reality needs to become apparent with some of you folks.
Obamamania is manufactured and therefore will be short lived.
There is no difference between Obama and Hillary politically whatsoever. Obama is by far a much smarter individual and a far more engaging and personable individual.
Hillary is not even in his league intelligence wise and if Obama were white there would be no contest between he and Mrs. Bill.
However despite, Oprah’s endorsement and a frankly surprising (to me) an Iowa victory, Obamamania will soon get that dose of reality. The Clinton machine will soon show you just how much Obama’s color will be very clear to those languishing in this Obamamania happy fog.
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This by Earl Ofari Hutchinson - LinkWhite voters tell pollsters they’re color-blind when it comes to race. But when they step into the privacy of the voting booth, it’s a whole different story. LOS ANGELES–Supporters of Illinois Sen. Barack Obama can brush aside many of the criticisms against him. Obama, after all, is a telegenic, articulate campaigner, a top fund-raiser and a centrist Democrat in good stead with party regulars. Is he too wet behind the ears, too green on the issues to win the presidency? Six years ago the same was said about the current occupant of the White House. The issue of Obama’s race, however, isn’t so easily glossed over.
The dangling question that Obama must wrestle with is: Will white voters, and that includes Democrats as well as moderate to conservative independents, vote for a black presidential candidate? The answer is very much up in the air.
Obama did a fairly good job getting white Democratic and independent support in his Illinois Senate victory. But this was not a fair test. His opponent, a lightly regarded, fill-in outsider, Alan Keyes, also was an African-American. Many Republican loyalists in the state were no-shows on Election Day. The chance that they’d cross over and vote for favorite son Obama as a presidential contender is virtually nil.
Still, many white voters, when publicly questioned if they would vote for a black candidate, swear that race makes no difference in their pick. But it’s often a different story when the voting curtain closes and there are no
prying pollsters’ eyes or reporters’ microphones and note pads around. In a 2006 study in the Quarterly Journal of Economics, a Yale political economist found that white Republicans are 25 percentage points more likely to cross over and vote for the Democratic senatorial candidate when the GOP candidate is black.
If Obama had been white and faced Keyes or any other black GOP candidate in his Illinois Senate bid, thousands of white Republicans would have defied their party and crossed over to vote for him. The study also found that from 1982 to 2000, when the GOP candidate was black, the majority of white independent voters backed the white candidate.
Republicans and independents weren’t the only ones who exhibited such behavior. Many Democrats did it, too. In House races, the study found that Democrats were nearly 40 percent less likely to vote Democratic if their party’s candidate was black.
Doug Wilder discovered that the hard way when he made a bid to be the first black governor of Virginia in 1989. Four years earlier, he got substantial white vote support in his successful run for lieutenant governor. But the governor’s race was a different story. Polls gave Wilder a near-landslide victory. But that was based on what white voters told pollsters. On election night, Wilder barely squeaked out a win. Many white voters who professed their color-blindness toward Wilder jumped ship in the voting booth.
How much has changed in the nearly two decades since? The Nov. 7 mid-term election may be telling. There are a slew of black Democratic and Republican candidates running for governor and for the Senate in several key swing states. They face white opponents and can’t win without substantial white support. Most of the candidates are well-known, top flight, seasoned office holders — as well as one high-profile sports icon — and are backed to the hilt by their parties. In a few cases, they hold substantial leads over their white opponents. Yet, none are considered shoo-ins.
The issue of race would be dicier for Obama in a presidential jaunt. He would have to unhinge one or two of the
Southern or border states away from the GOP. The solid South — that is, the South that is mostly white, conservative, male, pro-war and anti-big government — vehemently opposes any political tilt to minorities and is heavily influenced by ultra-conservative Bible Belt fundamentalism.
Obama is not an outspoken foe of Bush on the Iraq war, terrorism and domestic policies, and has even made some soundings about the need to court evangelicals. But the Southern strategy was the ace in the hole for GOP presidents Nixon, Reagan, Bush Sr. and Bush Jr. In 2008, the GOP will do everything it can to make sure that conservative white males don’t defect from the party. If Obama is the Democrat’s man in 2008, the GOP may find the temptation almost too irresistible not to flip the race card against him.
Many white voters can and will vote for Obama if they feel he has the presidential right stuff. But many still can’t or won’t step past his color. That tormenting fact still makes race the X factor that Obama and the Democrats must carefully consider in 2008.
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January 9th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
But..but… if Obama is smarter than Hillary, and Hillary is the smartest woman in the world… No, I’m not going there.
But I will disagree on one thing, it’s this: if Obama were white, he would be a nobody. The world is full of first-term white senators, half of them are running for president, and everyone’s talking about the black one.
January 9th, 2008 at 1:41 pm
I said that myself awhile back, but if there were a young good looking, dude even if he were white with Obama’s background and someone who could speak as well as Obama does, rally and motivate but not alienate (i.e. John Edwards) he would have a shot.
Yes the Magic Negro syndrome is alive and well in his campaign, young white folks not quite as caught up on race shit are the ones strongly backing him, but not because of race but because he is not this establishment guy.
January 9th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
I would have thought white Iowa voting for Obama might put at least a momentary damper on this.
If a legitimate leader who is qualified and black comes to the forefront they could win. It isn’t the fault of whites that Empty Suit Obama or the race baiters Jackson or Sharpton are the ones that have run.
But, you know, more power.
January 9th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Melvin this is the one weakness of blogging, because when I decide to rant about something, you (I) lose something because you don’t see my eyes and you can’t gage sincerity.
Let me be very clear, I’m not saying all white people are racist, I’m not saying that not voting for a black guy automatically makes you racist, this is simply pure logic and common sense, Iowa is hardly a barometer, never has been in presidential politics.
Of course Obama is an empty suit liberal I get that, but I’m only responding to all of the media gushing about him and how these pundits want to make Obama’s victory in Iowa into some sort of revelation on race in this society.
I wish I could sit down with some of you folks over a beer and articulate this more clearly, I wish I were able to type faster or convey my thoughts more concisely, but when you still have in this day old white people locking their car doors because a black man approaches, or someone like myself getting glaring glances when I walk into an establishment that black folks obviously infrequently patronize, the real issue of white flight from America’s cities and the never ending war of familiarity between whites and blacks not to mention the self imposed isolation many whites and especially black folks employ this does not get swept under the rug because a few thousand white folks in a Midwestern caucus give a black dude a temporary bump.
Giving props and cheering for a black dude as he runs for a touchdown or gives you a slam dunk, or marveling at the acting ability of another harmless black guy on the big or small screen, or giving your support to a buddy running for a city or education board council seat, or attending a mass with a black dude leading a prayer is a far cry from having one lead this NATION. Not a business or fortune 500 company, not a church, not a sports team, not a talk show host, or TV news anchor or political pundit, not a mayor or Governor, still rarely a congressman or woman in majority Negro districts and STILL rarely a U.S. Senator.
Anyone willing to be totally honest on this subject, ask yourself, do you know one black person (not Colin Powell or Ms. Rice that’s too easy) but someone with whom you truly know and admire and would say without conviction, that person should be president of the United States of America.
I’m black and I don’t know one single black individual I could honestly say that about.
There are a bunch of black folks that I admire and respect greatly, but be president, no. Has nothing to do with intelligence or qualifications or racism, the black folks with real ideas and substance and insight and brilliance are hidden obscure in American society.
I don’t know of them, I’m not exposed to them and I’m an insightful and fairly intelligent and informed dude.
Once they (black folks) find their niche, they stick to it; they maintain their comfort zone because they know as soon as they open their mouths (particularly politically) the scrutiny of the dominant white society will overwhelm them.
That is why you see few black folks with any substance or folks who are not loudmouth political party sycophants giving their opinions on pundit gab fests.
Also you have the continual need within the black establishment to form their own coalitions, like the Congressional Black Caucus, or the Black Media Association, NAACP, Urban League, Miss Black America numerous black church groups ect.
The mask Shelby Steel refers to the one all black folks must deal with is something that all us black folks are going to be dealing with until race mixing makes the majority of Americans into a light brown or tan complexion where skin pigmentation will “clearly” not matter.
But to say “oh just find us a qualified black dude and we will support him” is nonsense.
You may say that, hell Mrs. Snoop may say that, but find 80-100 million other white folks (voters) willing to honestly say that.
It will never happen!
January 9th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
I guess I am just an optomist. I would like to think that old white dudes who are still hung up on the amount of pigmant in a person’s skin are dying out real fast. The number of young people who are getting energized and involved b/c of Obama is amazing. However, like it or not, I think I must agree with someone who recently said that electing a President now has more in common with American Idol then anything else. It’s a popularity contest. Pure and simple.